Sunday, March 9, 2008
Demographic Winter
Check out this website and the trailer for Demographic Winter and let me know what you think. I can't remember where I stumbled upon this, I think it was timesandseasons.org, but I thought I'd pass it along. Amidst the various gloom and doom scenarios for the planet's future this was a new one to me. It also offers additional support to the family as the building block of society beyond the usual morals and values based reasoning. It appears to have some LDS backers but is produced for the general public.
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Very interesting. It seems a touch alarmist, but who knows? There has been a recent uptick in fertility rates in the US--can't remember where I saw it.
ReplyDeleteOne question. I thought the US was still above replacement. Maybe we're not but keep growing due to immigration.
the french are close to extinction? sounds ok to me.
ReplyDeleteSorry Despot, the Italians are even closer than the French (fertility rate of 1.38 vs. 1.89). South Korea is even worse at 1.21. The USA is at 2.09.
ReplyDeleteFor a big list go to:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_territories_by_fertility_rate
Yeah, I'm sure this doc has merit, even if it seems a bit heavy handed in it's presentation.
ReplyDeleteThe real problematic thing about docs in general is their preaching to the choirness. Instead of changing people's minds they tend to rally those who already agree with the issues being presented and alienate and cheese off people who disagree (Inconvenient Truth anyone?).
This is an issue that is under the radar and perhaps their motives are good in trying to raise awareness. Let's just hope the motive isn't to sell to people who already believe this in sort of thing. i.e. Mormon folk.
Either that or they want to scare the bi-jebbers out of the frogs.
I think the conclusions about demographics are probably correct, although these things can change. I do doubt if the economic downturn will be as dire as predicted. Sure there will be more fossils wandering about, but a lot of old folks are productive for longer as well. If the economy really turns south they will basically be forced to stay in the work force longer.
ReplyDeleteYes. This is interesting, and possibly an item of concern, but I have a feeling that the "demographic winter" will end up with the same way the as the "population bomb".
ReplyDeleteThey do have some neutral and high profile people quoted there, like Gary Becker, but I doubt old Becks would agree with the gloom and doom, especially since he seems to come down on the neo-Malthusians behind the "population bomb" scare.
Also, I'm waiting for all the Europeans to clear out so I can move in -- it's too bad France's replacement rate is currently so high. I'll have to settle for Italy, I guess. Does anyone know where I can get some hair grease and other offensive items?
i'm afraid italy is on it's way to its own kind of destruction, aaron. won't be long and that whole peninsula will either sink into the sea or be engulfed by the angry flames of hell that created and have sustained it, lo these many years. and i'm not talking about global warming.
ReplyDeleteno amount of hair grease can save that doomed land.